Mild Week Ahead, Rut Looming (10/16/17)

I got out one day last week. If I had it my way it would be 5 or 6 or 7. Maybe just 6 because a perfect week for me would include at least one round of golf. Heck you could hunt and golf in the same day if you plan it right.

Summary of last week’s sit? Well it was my first time in a tree this season so that’s a success for me. The biggest problem was on my 1.5 mile walk to my spot I managed to slip into a knee-high hole in the marsh grass and filled my boots with water. To top it off, as soon as I got set it started raining and never quit for the rest of the night. I knew it was going to rain, I even forecasted it in last week’s discussion! But I didn’t care, it was my only day to try and hunt so I went anyway. Can’t get them from the couch. Had I not gotten soaking wet on the way in it wouldn’t have even been that bad. I didn’t see anything, but had fun getting out in the woods nonetheless. I’m gonna try and get out again on Wednesday in hopefully much drier conditions.

I’m sure almost everybody has noticed the cold front that moved through over the last couple days. I believe today was the coldest morning of the season so far in many places. I’ve been seeing chatter on forums and facebook pages of people getting good bucks up in daylight this morning. I wish I could have gone out but some work kept me up too late last night to try and get up at 4am to go hunting before class. I will try again in a couple days. This was the first real fall-like front in my opinion, getting the morning temperatures down into the 30s here in southern Wisconsin with other areas still seeing 20+ degree temperature drops. If that doesn’t get the deer moving I don’t know what will.

Unfortunately it’ll be at least a week before we get another one of these but it will stay fairly mild at least for most of the country.

Temperature

Morning lows will be in the 40s for most areas all week this week with exception of Florida and south Texas (pretty standard for those areas really). This is a welcome change for us hunters and I personally am going to start putting more time into morning hunts as this transition sets in. It won’t be long now before the big boys are out on cruise control in the AM. The plains and some other parts of the central US will get highs back up into the 70s for most of the week, with the Midwest and eastern states in the mid-60s. That’s more like it October! By the end of the week it looks like we could see another front push through, but it’s currently forecasted to be quite a bit weaker than the one we saw this past weekend. Even still it looks like it will cool things down at least for a couple days and bring in a north wind for a day or two. Here’s what the GFS model says that might look like:

12Z-20171016_GFSUS_sfc_temp-114-177-40-100
2-meter temperature forecast from the GFS model (1am Saturday to 4pm Monday)

You can see after the front passes that warm air begins to return in the south fairly quickly.

Beyond this point I don’t want to speculate too much about what to expect. Not only are we trekking into what we meteorologists call “model fantasy land” after 170 hours, but we’re also at a point in the season where these pushes from the north are extremely variable and difficult to forecast well at long range. In the last three discussions I have done, every model I was looking at showed these massive cold fronts moving through at the end of the model run. Did they actually happen? No, that’s why it’s important to know the limitations of these long range forecast models. The problem is once you hit a certain point out in time, the long range models will trend to climatology (the seasonal average), which for this time of year we often start to see strong cold fronts. What’s the story this week? A massive cold front at the end of the long range model runs, again. I have no reasonable way of telling you for sure whether or not that will happen and I’m not going to pretend to. The only reason I even mention it this time is because it’s becoming a more reasonable possibility as we go further into Fall. And because I want you to be informed of this if you decide to check out these weather models for yourself. If you’ve noticed, I try to stay below 200 hours with anything I show you and my statements become more generalized the farther I go out in time. I wish we could predict the future as well as some of these commercialized weather companies claim they can.

Be smart about the weather information you’re getting.

Precipitation

The 3-day precipitation outlook is pretty much dry for most of the country after a fairly rainy and gloomy weekend for a lot of folks. It’s great to see the sunshine in Madison today after an overcast-filled weekend. Here’s a map of the precipitation forecast for the next 3 days:

d13_fill
Precipitation forecast through Friday (10/20)

If you live in Florida or the Pacific northwest it’s gonna be wet for you guys, the rest of the country looks nice and dry. Rain will come back into the forecast as we head into the weekend. We can see that on the extended precipitation forecast maps:

95ep48iwbg_fill
Precipitation forecast through Sunday (10/22)
97ep48iwbg_fill
Precipitation forecast through Tuesday (10/24)

Looks like the southern plains could get pretty wet through the weekend with some showers possibly moving through the midwest and east as well.

Long Range Outlook

The CPC continues to show above normal temperature forecasts for the rest of the month:

off15_temp

I know this is a re-occurring theme if you’ve been following the last few discussions. But it is what it is. It makes sense given that there are no major cold fronts expected on the horizon. Hopefully that will change soon.

If you have any questions about the information you see on this website or just general weather-related questions feel free to shoot me an email or yell at me on one of the forums on thehuntingbeast.com. I’m on there quite a bit.

Good luck.

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