Weekly Forecast (9-19-18): Fall Arrives

Sorry about the poor video quality while I’m going through the weather models. I will have the issue fixed by next week.

Summary

With the exception of the Rocky Mountains and the Northwestern US, most of the country is still fairly warm for this time of year. However, that will change soon (at least for a few days) after a cold front makes its way into the central and eastern US towards the end of the week. After high temperatures have recently averaged in the mid to upper 80s for the southern, central, and eastern US, anywhere from a 10-20º cool down can be expected depending on your location. This will last through Friday and the first part of Saturday before temperatures start to warm again late Saturday into Sunday. As for the western and northwestern US, expect conditions to remain generally the same for the next several days, with relatively warm daytime temperatures becoming cool overnight. A second, stronger cold front looks possible east of the Rockies early next week, with temperature drops of 20º or more not out of the question. However, significant uncertainty exists in the timing and development of this front, so it is not useful to go into detail at this point. A future update before the next weekly forecast may be necessary as details become more clear. Some parts of the Southern Plains could see several inches of rain over the next few days as well. Parts of the Midwest will see the greatest precipitation chances, with the Upper Mississippi valley region expected to see over 2.5 inches in some areas.

Temperature and Fronts

While most areas east of the Rockies are still relatively warm, a welcomed cold front is expected to move across this region beginning late Thursday into Saturday morning. It wont bring any particularly cold air with it but many areas could see up to a 20º drop for a few hours. Nonetheless, for this part of the season it should be great for hunting considering it’s been fairly warm for a long period of time. The deer will be eager to get up and moving in the cool fresh air. Below is a model animation from the Global Forecast System (GFS) showing the passing of the front: 

Another front is possible early next week, but details on it are too vague at the moment to really dive into what it might look like. It looks like it could be a stronger front, but time will tell. If you pay attention to nothing else, you should definitely be hunting these fronts this early in the year. I imagine a lot of deer will be killed on Friday and Saturday. Remember to think about thermals when you set up; they are important and tricky year round but they can be quite pronounced when the days are warm and the nights are cool.

Precipitation

I’m not sure I’m ready to go proving the theories and statistics discussed in the Hunting in the Rain podcast I did recently, but I’m sure several people will this weekend. It’s going to be WET for some areas, especially the northern Mississippi River valley and the southern plains. 2-4″ of rain is expected across the river valley, and up to 5″ inches is possible in Oklahoma and Texas. Bring your kayak if you’re going hunting, you might need it! As mentioned in the podcast, give the rain a try; it could prove very fruitful for you especially if it cools it down quite a bit. Here is a graphical look at the expected precipitation over the next few days:

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Severe Weather

This is more of a safety precaution than a hunting consideration. If you’re going to be hunting tomorrow (Thursday 9/20), make note of the areas outlined below where severe weather is expected:

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Damaging winds are the main threat expected with the storms, but there is also a possibility for a couple tornadoes. You do NOT want to be in a treestand, or any kind of stand, during either of those situations. No deer is worth your life, so check out the weather tomorrow afternoon before you go out.

Long-term Temperature

Think of these graphics as below or above average areas. For example, if the average temperature for Rockford, Illinois is 70º on September 19th, temperatures there will likely fall below that on average over the next 8-14 days. So most of the country east of the Rockies can expect to be cooler than average during the next two weeks. Sounds like a good time to be in the woods!

See you next Wednesday,

Austin

P.S. If you haven’t already, be sure and check out the videos and weather tools tabs to get familiar with how I make the forecasts every week. Especially the video on using weather models. They will help you understand the things I’m using for the forecast a little better.

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