Weekly Forecast (9-26-18): Several Cold Fronts Expected

The severe weather forecast is well out of date and you should ignore it. Most of what I talk about has already happened at the time this is being published. I apologize for this inconvenience.

Summary

Several cold fronts are expected to move through over the next 7-10 days bringing in a more permanent residence of the new season. For those of you who have October 1st openers you’re going to like what you see in this forecast. Cooler air will move in and mostly stay in for the foreseeable future following a front that moves in this week. Precipitation will mostly be confined to areas along the cold front that moved through on Tuesday and is moving into the southeastern US. The southeastern states will see the bulk of precipitation from the front over the next few days. Some light rain is possible across the great lakes later in the week but it should be relatively mild. Some severe weather is possible today (Wed 9/26/18) across the northeastern US, with damaging wind and a couple tornadoes as the expected possible hazards. Overall, this should be the best period of weather conditions for hunting we have seen thus far, and it should be a great opener come the week of October 1st.

Temperature and Fronts

Several cold fronts will make their way across the country during this forecast period. With one in particular being quite strong, which is expected around the middle of next week. However, the couple of fronts that precede that one are nothing to spit at, and they will bring welcomed cool downs of 15º-20º with some stout areas of high pressure. Many areas will see their first taste of low to mid 30s for the fall. The first 2 to 3 days of October may warm back up, but then a big front will come in behind the warm air to really cool things down. Below is an animation showing the fronts moving through over the next several days:

I will have posted another forecast by the time the major front at the end gets here. This front is well beyond the 150 hour mark I often talk about in the GFS model, so it reasonable to be skeptical. However, the EMCWF (European model) is showing the exact same scenario, so we can put some stock in the fact that at least something similar will take place later next week.

Precipitation

The current front moving through has kicked up showers and storms all along its length. It will continue to do so as it makes its way into the southeastern US, where some areas of Alabama, Mississippi, and surrounding states could see up to 2″ of rain. However, most of the rest of the country will remain mostly dry for the weekend. The next notable chance for showers and thunderstorms will be next Tuesday into Wednesday across part of the Great Plains and Great Lakes regions. As you know, this is too far into the future to give specific details, but given the several fronts expected and the mixture of warm and cold air a few strong thunderstorms across this region are a possibility.

Expected precipitation from 7am today to 7am Saturday.

Expected precipitation from Saturday into Monday.

Expected precipitation from Monday into Wednesday.

Long-range Temperature

The long range temperature outlook this week mostly mirrors what we’re expecting with the cold fronts. Cooler air will surge into the central US, stalling along the southeastern states and east coast. As a result, below normal temperatures are expected across the regions that will see the most drastic effects of the front, everywhere else is still forecast to remain above normal. Especially the western states, which look to be very hot.

It looks like a great period of hunting is coming up. Good luck to you all and for those with an October 1st opener, happy deer season.

See you next Wednesday.

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